Chat with us, powered by LiveChat This exercise provides you the opportunity to apply several concepts you have learned in Module #3 in addition to Excel skills practice. Learning Objectives: ? Identify trends and patter - EssayAbode

13 Feb This exercise provides you the opportunity to apply several concepts you have learned in Module #3 in addition to Excel skills practice. Learning Objectives: ? Identify trends and patter

Posted at 02:46h in Business & Finance / Operations Management by

  

This exercise provides you the opportunity to apply several concepts you have learned in Module #3 in addition to Excel skills practice.

Learning Objectives:

· Identify trends and patterns by analyzing data in an Excel line graph 

· Compare and contrast the performance and accuracy of five sales forecasting models through forecast accuracy analysis

· Develop conclusions and a forecasting recommendation for a case study issue

· Compute the labor productivity impact due to a demand shock significantly lowering demand below the forecast and make a recommendation on how to address

· Create a chart in Excel and insert the chart in a Word document

· Create a well-written, professional, grammatically correct leadership report

Required Materials:

· Redstone Foods M&M Wholesale Case Study – (Word document)

· Redstone Foods M&M Wholesale Data File – (Excel document)

· Microsoft Excel

Forecasting

Redstone Foods M&M Sales Forecasting Tool
Data Section 2019 Total Sold (Cases) 2020 Total Sold (Cases) 2021 Total Sold (Cases) 2022 Total Sold (Cases) 2021 – 2022 Actual Growth MODEL #1 2022 Forecast 3% Growth Over 2019 Only MODEL #1 2022 Forecast Growth Over 2019 Only – Absolute Deviations Squared Errors Absolute Percent Error MODEL #2 2022 Forecast 3-month Moving Average MODEL #2 2022 Forecast 3-month Moving Average – Absolute Deviations Squared Errors Absolute Percent Error MODEL #3 2022 Forecast 3-Month Weighted Moving Average MODEL #3 2022 Forecast 3-Month Weighted Moving Average – Absolute Deviations Squared Errors Absolute Percent Error MODEL #4 2022 Forecast Exp. Smoothing MODEL #4 2022 Forecast Exp. Smoothing – Absolute Deviations Squared Errors Absolute Percent Error MODEL #5 2022 Forecast Exp. Smoothing with Trend MODEL #5 2022 Forecast Exp. Smoothing with Trend – Absolute Deviations Squared Errors Absolute Percent Error Season Adjusment Factors
January 52598 57487 57342 58012 1.17% 59062 1050 1102500 1.81% 71352 13340 177955600 23.00% 71907 13895 193071025 23.95% 64183 6171 38081241 10.64% 65144 7132 50865424 12.29% 0.89
February 58908 59513 58236 59456 2.09% 59983 527 277729 0.89% 67689 8233 67782289 13.85% 65312 5856 34292736 9.85% 66559 7103 50452609 11.95% 68086 8630 74476900 14.51% 0.91
March 58800 62834 56843 57007 0.29% 58548 1541 2374681 2.70% 63473 6466 41809156 11.34% 61722 4715 22231225 8.27% 68477 11470 131560900 20.12% 70160 13153 173001409 23.07% 0.89
April 69056 76115 72343 60582 -16.26% 74513 13931 194072761 23.00% 58158 2424 5875776 4.00% 57943 2639 6964321 4.36% 65337 4755 22610025 7.85% 65092 4510 20340100 7.44% 1.13
May 64884 67409 65875 58209 -11.64% 67851 9642 92968164 16.56% 59015 806 649636 1.38% 59284 1075 1155625 1.85% 63573 5364 28772496 9.22% 62720 4511 20349121 7.75% 1.03
June 55465 55863 59351 52850 -10.95% 61132 8282 68591524 15.67% 58599 5749 33051001 10.88% 58681 5831 34000561 11.03% 61603 8753 76615009 16.56% 60303 7453 55547209 14.10% 0.93
July 59143 61869 60050 53021 -11.71% 61852 8831 77986561 16.66% 57214 4193 17581249 7.91% 56004 2983 8898289 5.63% 61297 8276 68492176 15.61% 60394 7373 54361129 13.91% 0.94
August 61171 62850 63259 55895 -11.64% 65157 9262 85784644 16.57% 54693 1202 1444804 2.15% 54007 1888 3564544 3.38% 60370 4475 20025625 8.01% 59458 3563 12694969 6.37% 0.99
September 64173 63224 62518 56022 -10.39% 64394 8372 70090384 14.94% 53922 2100 4410000 3.75% 54424 1598 2553604 2.85% 58114 2092 4376464 3.73% 56665 643 413449 1.15% 0.97
October 68265 67351 69002 — 71072 54979 55384 56586 55105 1.08
November 72885 75195 72102 — 74265 ERROR:#N/A ERROR:#N/A ERROR:#N/A ERROR:#N/A 1.10
December 69865 72488 72952 — 75141 ERROR:#N/A ERROR:#N/A ERROR:#N/A ERROR:#N/A 1.14
Forecast Accuracy MODEL #1 MODEL #2 MODEL #1 MODEL #1 MODEL #1 MODEL #3 MODEL #1 MODEL #1 MODEL #1 MODEL #4 MODEL #5
Apply Seasonality Adjustment NO 2022 YTD Accuracy MAD 6826 4946 4498 6495 6330
Forecast Growth Rate (Target): 3.00% MSE 65916550 38951057 34081326 48998505 51338857
Forecast Weights: 20% 30% 50% MAPE 12.09% 8.70% 7.91% 11.52% 11.18%
YTD Aggregate Growth Rate: -8.05%
1st Quarter 2022 Accuracy MAD 1039 9346 8155 8248 9638
MSE 1251637 95849015 83198329 73364917 99447911
MAPE 1.80% 16.06% 14.02% 14.23% 16.63%
2nd Quarter 2022 Accuracy MAD 10618 2993 3182 6291 5491
MSE 118544150 13192138 14040169 42665843 32078810
MAPE 18.41% 5.42% 5.75% 11.21% 9.77%
3rd Quarter 2022 Accuracy MAD 8822 2498 2156 4948 3860
MSE 77953863 7812018 5005479 30964755 22489849
MAPE 16.06% 4.60% 3.95% 9.12% 7.14%

M&M Sales Forecasts (Cases)

2021 Total Sold (Cases) January February March April May June July August September October November December 57342 58236 56843 72343 65875 59351 60050 63259 62518 69002 72102 72952 2022 Total Sold (Cases) 58012 59456 57007 60582 58209 52850 53021 55895 56022 MODEL #1 2022 Forecast 3% Growth Over 2019 Only 59062 59983 58548 74513 67851 61132 61852 65157 64394 71072 74265 75141 MODEL #2 2022 Forecast 3-month Moving Average 71352 67689 63473 58158 59015 58599 57214 54693 53922 54979 #N/A #N/A MODEL #3 2022 Forecast 3-Month Weighted Moving Average 71907 65312 61722 57943 59284 58681 56004 54007 54424 55384 #N/A #N/A MODEL #4 2022 Forecast Exp. Smoothing 64183 66559 68477 65337 63573 61603 61297 60370 58114 56586 #N/A #N/A MODEL #5 2022 Forecast Exp. Smoothing with Trend 65144 68086 70160 65092 62720 60303 60394 59458 56665 55105 #N/A #N/A

Month

Cases Forecast

M&M Sales Trends (Cases Sold)

2021 Total Sold (Cases) January February March April May June July August September October November December 57342 58236 56843 72343 65875 59351 60050 63259 62518 69002 72102 72952 2022 Total Sold (Cases) 58012 59456 57007 60582 58209 52850 53021 55895 56022 2020 Total Sold (Cases) 57487 59513 62834 76115 67409 55863 61869 62850 63224 67351 75195 72488 2019 Total Sold (Cases) 52598 58908 58800 69056 64884 55465 59143 61171 64173 68265 72885 69865

Month

Cases Sold

Calcs

January 57342 Yes January Jan-18 Jan-19
February 58236

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