Assessment 3
Predicting an Outcome Using Regression Models

Instructions: Perform multiple regression on the relationship between hospital costs and patient age, risk factors, and patient satisfaction scores, and then generate a prediction to support this healthcare decision. Write a 3-4 page analysis of the results in a Word document that includes a recommendation and a plan of action, and insert the test results into this document.

Introduction

Note: You are strongly encouraged to complete the assessments in this course in the order they are presented.

Regression is an important statistical technique for determining the relationship between an outcome (dependent variable) and predictors (independent variables). Multiple regression evaluates the relative predictive contribution of each independent variable on a dependent variable. The regression model can then be used for predicting an outcome at various levels of the independent variables. For this assessment, you will perform multiple regression and generate a prediction to support a healthcare decision.

Preparation

First, read the Assessment 3 Lecture [PDF] Download Assessment 3 Lecture [PDF].

Then, download the Assessment 3 Data Set [XLSX].

The dataset contains the following variables:

• cost (hospital cost in dollars).
• age (patient age in years).
• risk (count of patient risk factors).
• satisfaction (patient satisfaction score percentile rank).

Walkthrough: You may view the Predicting an Outcome Using Regression Models Walkthrough to help you prepare for your assessment.

Hospital administration needs to make a decision on the amount of reimbursement required to cover expected costs for next year. Hospital administration is considering value-based reimbursement and needs to decide whether to accept a value-based reimbursement contract based on their expected costs. The administrators need to determine if this is a viable strategy and what action needs to occur to make this a viable strategy.

Instructions

For this assessment, using information on hospital discharges from last year, perform multiple regression on the relationship between hospital costs and patient age, risk factors, and patient satisfaction scores, and then generate a prediction to support this healthcare decision.

Write a 3–4 page analysis of the results in a Word document and insert the test results into this document (copied from the output file and pasted into a Word document). Write a recommendation to determine if a value-based contract should be accepted and what actions should be taken to support the decision. Refer to the Copy From Excel to Another Office Program resource for instructions.

Submit both the Word document and the Excel file that shows the results.

Grading Criteria:

The numbered assessment instructions outlined below correspond to the grading criteria in the Predicting an Outcome Using Regression Models Scoring Guide, so be sure to address each point. You may also want to review the performance-level descriptions for each criterion to see how your work will be assessed.

1. Perform the appropriate multiple regression using a data set.
2. Interpret the statistical significance and effect size of the regression coefficients of a data analysis.
   • Interpret p-value and beta values.
3. Interpret the fit of the regression model for prediction of a data analysis.
   • Interpret R-squared and goodness of fit.
4. Apply the statistical results of the multiple regression of a data analysis to support a healthcare decision.
   • Generate a prediction with regression equation.
5. Write a recommendation to determine what decision and plan of action to make for the scenario that is based upon your data analysis and supported with scholarly literature.
6. Write clearly and concisely, using correct grammar, mechanics, and APA formatting.

Additional Requirements:

Your assessment should also meet the following requirements:

• Written communication: Write clearly, accurately, and professionally, incorporating sources appropriately.
• Length: 3–4 pages.
• Resources: Minimum three, preferably more. You must support all concepts, numbers, dates borrowed from an outside source. References must be either evidence-based journal articles, or primary sources(.gov, .org, or .edu).
• APA format: Cite the sources using current APA guidelines. See the Find Scholarly & Peer-Reviewed Sources and Evidence and APA Campus resources for guidance.
• Font and font size: Times Roman, 12 point.

Competencies Measured:

By successfully completing this assessment, you will demonstrate your proficiency in the following course competencies and scoring guide criteria:

• Competency 2: Analyze data using computer-based programming and software.
  • Perform the appropriate multiple regression using a data set.
• Competency 3: Interpret results of data analysis for value based healthcare decisions, policy, or practice.
  • Interpret the statistical significance and effect size of the regression coefficients of a data analysis.
  • Interpret the fit of the regression model for prediction of a data analysis.
• Competency 4: Present results of data analysis to support a decision or recommendation.
  • Apply the statistical results of the multiple regression of a data analysis to support a healthcare decision.
  • Write a recommendation for a decision and plan of action based on a data analysis and supported with scholarly literature.
• Competency 5: Communicate audience-appropriate health management content in a logically structured and concise manner, writing clearly with correct use of grammar, punctuation, spelling, and APA style.
  • Write clearly and concisely, using correct grammar, mechanics, and APA formatting.