Case Study: Uncertainty

[WLOs: 1, 2, 3, 4] [CLOs: 1, 2, 3, 5]

Prior to beginning work on this assignment, review Chapter 6: Decision Making Under Uncertainty.

Read Case 6.4, “Developing a Helicopter Component for the ARMY” in your course text.

For Part 1 of this assignment, using an Excel spreadsheet,

• Develop a decision tree to maximize Ventron’s expected monetary value (EMV).
  • This includes the revenue from this project, the side benefits (if applicable) from an improved extrusion process, and relevant costs.
  • You don’t need to worry about time value of money; that is, no discounting or net present values are required.
• Summarize your findings in words in the spreadsheet.

For Part 2 of this assignment, in a one to two page paper,

• Determine what value of side benefits would make Ventron indifferent between the two alternatives.
• Evaluate how much Ventron would be willing to pay, right now, for perfect information about both steps of the improved extrusion process.

The Case Study: Uncertainty paper

• Must be one to two double-spaced pages in length (not including title and references pages) and formatted according to APA Style (Links to an external site.) as outlined in the Writing Center’s APA Formatting for Microsoft Word (Links to an external site.) resource.
• Must include a separate title page with the following:
  • Title of paper in bold font
    • Space should appear between the title and the rest of the information on the title page.
  • Student’s name
  • Name of institution (The University of Arizona Global Campus)
  • Course name and number
  • Instructor’s name
  • Due date
• Must utilize academic voice. See the Academic Voice (Links to an external site.) resource for additional guidance.
• Must include an introduction and conclusion paragraph. Your introduction paragraph needs to end with a clear thesis statement that indicates the purpose of your paper.
  • For assistance on writing Introductions & Conclusions (Links to an external site.) and Writing a Thesis Statement (Links to an external site.), refer to the Writing Center resources.
• Must use at least two credible sources in addition to the course text.
  • The Scholarly, Peer-Reviewed, and Other Credible Sources (Links to an external site.) table offers additional guidance on appropriate source types. If you have questions about whether a specific source is appropriate for this assignment, please contact your instructor. Your instructor has the final say about the appropriateness of a specific source.
  • To assist you in completing the research required for this assignment, view Quick and Easy Library Research (Links to an external site.)tutorial, which introduces the University of Arizona Global Campus Library and the research process, and provides some library search tips.
• Must document any information used from sources in APA Style as outlined in the Writing Center’s APA: Citing Within Your Paper (Links to an external site.) guide.
• Must include a separate references page that is formatted according to APA Style as outlined in the Writing Center. See the APA: Formatting Your References List (Links to an external site.) resource in the Writing Center for specifications.

Carefully review the Grading Rubric (Links to an external site.) for the criteria that will be used to evaluate your assignment.