Understanding of probability is key in making business decisions. The following questions begin to test your understanding o f the different forms of probability and the data on which probabilistic decision making is based.  Review the important themes within the sub questions of each bullet point. The sub questions are designed to get you thinking about some of the important issues. Your response should provide a succinct synthesis of the key themes in a way that articulates a clear point, position, or conclusion supported by research. Select a different bullet point section than what your classmates have already posted so that we can engage several discussions on relevant topics. If all of the bullet points have been addressed, then you may begin to re-use the bullet points with the expectation that varied responses continue. 

• ***You are a marketing manager for a company that makes ready-to-eat breakfast cereals. Your company recently initiated a loyalty program for consumers, which resulted in a large purchaser database. The brand managers are eager to examine the available data, which they can use to design more effective promotional programs. Your first step is to conduct an exploratory baseline analysis, the goal of which is to describe the buyer base and estimate basic statistical descriptors of the buyer base. You are particularly interested in the size of individual purchases, as well as the frequency of repurchases.
  • —-Evaluate what discrete data distribution the frequency of repurchases data would be likely to follow.
  • —-Explain why the other discrete data distributions are not appropriate for this data. Support your discussion with relevant examples, research, and rationale.

The final paragraph (three or four sentences) of your initial post should summarize the one or two key points that you are making in your initial response.

Submission Details:

• APA Format (500–1000 words)